Deli: assumes about 65% of bio link taps head to the menu and order path, new-customer conversion of 5–10%, and a typical deli customer at $30–$40 per visit, 4–8 visits a year, over a 2–3 year relationship.
Catering: assumes about 25% of bio link taps head to the catering path, catering inquiry conversion of 5–10%, and typical Cincinnati mid-range catering at $35–$50 per person for 30–80 person events.
The headline number is a midpoint. The range beneath it reflects the uncertainty in conversion rates and customer mix. The midpoint gives you an expected impact to plan around; the range shows the honest spread. As Bitly per-link tracking and your own data land in Q3, both the midpoint and the range tighten.
Sources: ChowNow Restaurant CLV, Toast POS CLV, Catering Finder pricing.